An article from January 14, 1986

[Willie99]

Tell me what looks familiar to you

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[FONT=&quot]The AIDS epidemic is not expected to spread rapidly into the general population, Government and academic experts now believe, but the disease will probably kill far more Americans than is generally recognized.

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[FONT=&quot]The latest figures show that the explosive growth rate of the epidemic is moderating ever so slightly and has already leveled off in one of the hardest-hit cities, San Francisco.

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[FONT=&quot]Even so, the number of new cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome predicted for the coming year will, for the first time, reach levels comparable to the last highly feared epidemic in the United States, paralytic polio.

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[FONT=&quot]For 1986, the Federal Centers for Disease Control predicts between 14,000 and 15,000 new cases of AIDS, the vast majority in the two groups who are already afflicted, male homosexuals and intravenous drug users. At its worst, in 1952, paralytic polio struck some 21,000 Americans, and in other peak years it claimed from 10,000 to 18,000 victims.




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[FONT=&quot]
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[Willie99]

Great Uncertainties, Great Foreboding
Projections of the future course of the AIDS epidemic are tinged with great uncertainties. Nobody knows how many Americans are currently infected with the virus that can cause AIDS, or how many of those who are infected will go on to develop either AIDS or a range of related illnesses, including brain damage. Nobody knows whether an effective vaccine or drug treatment will be developed. Nobody knows whether rising fears and new educational programs will change the behavior of promiscuous homosexuals or intravenous drug users enough to slow spread of the disease. And nobody knows how easily the disease will be transmitted through heterosexual intercourse. Only about 1 percent of all cases thus far have been attributed to intimate heterosexual contact, and that percentage appears to be holding.

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But granting all the uncertainties, Dr. Anthony J. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, one of the Government's top authorities on AIDS, said today that he believes, on the basis of very ''soft'' estimates, that one million Americans have already been infected with the virus and that this number will jump to at least 2 million or 3 million within 5 to 10 years. He also hazarded a guess that about 40 percent of those infected would eventually develop AIDS and die from it, over the course of years or even decades, unless a treatment is found. If he is right, then perhaps 400,000 Americans are already doomed to die from AIDS, and that number could climb to a million within 5 to 10 years. Greatest Damage May Be Yet to Come

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​

Those speculative projections, although admittedly rough, nevertheless indicate that the epidemic is likely to cause far more damage in the future than it has over the past six or seven years since the virus first reached this country in the late 1970's. As of Jan. 6, the C.D.C. reported a cumulative total of 16,138 cases of AIDS, resulting in 8,220 deaths so far.

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''I see no reason to be optimistic about any downtrend,'' said Dr. June E. Osborn, dean of the school of public health at the University of Michigan, who prepared a review of the epidemic for the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences. ''A year from now we'll have about twice as many cases as we do now. That's apt to make the difference between manageability and unmanageability for some high-risk areas.''

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''I fear it will get worse before it gets better,'' said Dr. Ward Cates, head of the sexually transmitted disease division at the Federal centers. Some Routes of Transmission Are Blocked

 

[Willie99]

[FONT=&quot]The virus that causes AIDS is transmitted primarily through intimate sexual contact and through the exchange of contaminated blood, as can occur when drug addicts share the same needles. Some experts express moderate optimism that the spread of the virus can be contained primarily within the current risk groups, at least in the near future. They note that new screening tests appear to have made the blood supply safe, thus blocking one major route by which the virus could spread rapidly through the population, and that new sterilizing treatments appear to have made the blood factors given to hemophiliacs safe, thus blocking another route.

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[FONT=&quot]But many experts also fear that those who do contract the virus face a far bleaker future than is generally appreciated.

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[FONT=&quot]Federal officials generally assert that 5 to 10 percent of those infected by the virus can be expected to develop full-scale AIDS within five years of their infection, based on the findings of a few limited studies. Ultimate Toll Could Be Higher

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[FONT=&quot]But data emerging from a number of additional studies, all admittedly small, suggest that the ultimate toll could be far higher. Dr. Stanley H. Weiss, an epidemiologist at tne National Cancer Institute, said last week that preliminary results from eight small studies in which he is involved ''strongly suggest that a higher proportion of persons infected with the virus are likely to develop fatal complications than is commonly understood.'' The studies have been conducted since about 1982 in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania and in Denmark.

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[FONT=&quot]Dr. Weiss said that the most disturbing findings have emerged from two studies of homosexual males in New York City, which found, respectively, that 25 percent and 34 percent of those infected with the virus have thus far developed AIDS. The other six studies found that 8 percent to 15 percent of those infected have thus far developed the disease. ''I anticipate that all those figures are likely to continue to rise with further observation,'' Dr. Weiss said.

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[FONT=&quot]A much larger study of homosexual men in San Francisco, involving thousands of men infected with the virus, has found that only about 5 percent or 6 percent have developed AIDS after being followed for periods up to five years. Decreasing Risk

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[FONT=&quot]Dr. Harold Jaffe, the chief AIDS epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control, said the critical question is whether an infected person's odds of getting the disease will begin to go down as the years pass, or will remain the same, in which case virtually everyone might eventually become sick. ''We'd feel much better if we could say to an infected person, 'If you go for a year or two without getting sick, your chances of getting sick are very small,' '' said Dr. Jaffe. ''But none of the studies that have followed people for two to five years has shown a decreasing risk of illness with time. That's disturbing. If it doesn't start to decrease over time, we're in trouble.''

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[FONT=&quot]ADVERTISEMENT

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[Willie99]

Estimates of the percentage of those infected who will eventually become ill vary widely. Most experts interviewed last week were unwilling to offer an estimate. But Dr. Frank Polk, professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, who directs a major study of AIDS, suggested that 30 percent to 50 percent of those infected will come down with the disease. ''That's a lot of people,'' he said. ''They'll all die until we get a good treatment.'' He put the odds of achieving such a treatment at only 50-50.

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How far the virus has spread is a matter of conjecture. Various officials and experts have said that the number of Americans already infected ranges from 500,000 to 2 million, the vast majority being male homosexuals or intravenous drug abusers. However, those are little more than educated guesses extrapolating from a very slim data base. No survey of the general population has yet been made to determine how far the infection has spread.

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The chief basis for the estimates is a study of male homosexuals in San Francisco which found that in 1984 there were 28 cases of infection with the virus for every case of full-scale AIDS. The Centers for Disease Control assumed that the nation as a whole would have a somewhat higher ratio, perhaps 50 or 100 infections for each case of AIDS. That produced a ''reasonable estimate'' that from 500,000 to 1 million Americans had been infected with the virus, at a time when about 10,000 cases of AIDS had been reported. That estimate remains unchanged today.

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''I think the numbers are without foundation,'' complained Dr. Albert Sabin, the developer of a polio vaccine, who is now a senior expert consultant at the National Institutes of Health. ''We really don't know how many are infected.''

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The firmest figures for measuring the course of the epidemic are the number of cases of AIDS diagnosed in accord with a careful definition promulgated by the C.D.C. These show that the epidemic is continuing to spread but at a slightly slower rate. ''A couple of years ago the number of cases was doubling every six months,'' said Dr. Jaffe. ''The last doubling took about 11 months, and we project that the next doubling will take about 13 months.'' Risk Groups Become Saturated

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One possible explanation for the slowdown in the rate of increase is that male homosexuals in major cities and drug addicts in the New York area, the two major risk groups, are becoming saturated with the infection, leaving less room for further explosive spread. Another is that homosexual men, and to a lesser extent drug addicts, are changing their practices to avoid exposure to the virus.

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[FONT=&quot]However, most experts caution that the stretching out of the doubling time is no proof that the epidemic is moderating. The absolute number of cases continues to rise sharply. The 14,000 or 15,000 cases expected in the coming year will almost equal the 16,000 cases reported in the entire previous course of the epidemic.


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[Willie99]

[FONT=&quot]The most dramatic slowdown thus far has occurred in San Francisco, which ranks a close second to New York, and far ahead of all other cities, in percentage of the population diagnosed with AIDS. ''The increment of new cases in San Francisco flattened out about a year ago,'' said Dr. Philip R. Lee, president of the city's health commission and director of the Institute for Health Policy Studies at the University of California medical school in San Franciso. ''Our cases had been doubling and we were anticipating that that would continue. But now we're getting about 60 or 70 new cases per month, about where we were a year ago, and it isn't going up. We don't talk about it much because we don't want people to become complacent. We're the only city I know of where that slowdown has occurred.''

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[FONT=&quot]Nationwide, the disease has thus far remained confined primarily in the risk groups in which it was first detected. ''So far we have not really seen any indication that the disease is shifting to other groups,'' said Dr. Jaffe. ''I couldn't predict five or ten years ahead, but for the next two years I don't expect to see any dramatic shift.'' Opinion Split Sharply

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[FONT=&quot]Professional opinion is split sharply on whether the virus is apt to spread easily to the heterosexual population in this country. It has been fairly well documented that men can transmit the virus to women through sexual intercourse, but there is major uncertainty over whether women can transmit it effectively to men through intercourse, a factor that will be crucial in determining how fast the virus penetrates into the general population, or at least the sexually active heterosexual population. If the disease does spread readily from women to men, then prostitutes who become infected could infect large numbers of their customers, and men and women who frequent singles bars could swap the virus back and forth.

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[FONT=&quot]Some experts note that heterosexual transmission seems to occur in Africa and Haiti, that some soldiers abroad may have developed AIDS from repeated intercourse with prostitutes, and that the AIDS virus has already been found in some American prostitutes. ''It seems a very reasonable assumption, if not an inevitable conclusion, that the virus can be spread from females to males, especially from prostitutes,'' said Dr. Fauci. ''If we start to see well-documented cases of spread from female to male, and I see no reason why that shouldn't be, I would bet that we are going to see a gradual increase in heterosexual transmission in this country. It won't be a real fulminant increase but a gradual increase.''

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[FONT=&quot]However, Dr. Stephen Schultz, deputy health commissioner for epidemiologic services in New York City, which has almost a third of the nation's AIDS cases, said that the disease is ''more or less staying in the original risk groups'' and there is ''scant evidence, although it does sometimes happen, for female to male transmission.'' Only 2 of more than 5,000 AIDS cases in New York appear to have been transmitted sexually from females to males, and even those two are not certain, he said. Although many prostitutes in New York City may well have acquired the virus, he said, ''their ability to transmit that to their clients it not very great.''

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[FONT=&quot]Dr. Polk, of Johns Hopkins, agreed that ''with the exception of intravenous drug abusers, I don't think AIDS is going to spread much into the heterosexual population because I don't think men will acquire the infection from women sexually, except for rare occurrences.'' He suggested that ''the male genital tract is not a very efficient portal of entry for the virus.''

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[FONT=&quot]Another troublesome question is the extent to which the virus will cause neurological and brain damage in victims who do not necessarily develop a full-scale case of AIDS. The virus has already been detected in the brain fluids of some victims and seems to have caused neurological problems in many of them. But investigators are uncertain whether brain disease will afflict large numbers of people who have no other symptoms or whether it will simply constitute yet another health problem in people who are already seriously ill with the manifestations of AIDS.

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[Willie99]

I posted the whole article.

If anyone remembers, people were terrified of this disease, millions were predicted to die

"sex as we knew it was never going to be the same"




PS: we never closed down this country, despite not knowing anything about this pandemic (or virus)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

There's no reason to have anymore lockdown periods........we need herd immunity........there's no other way to get thru this virus that pretty much works like the flu.

 

[Knightrofins]

Did people not wear condoms before that?

 

[busterhyman]

I posted the whole article.

If anyone remembers, people were terrified of this disease, millions were predicted to die

"sex as we knew it was never going to be the same"




PS: we never closed down this country, despite not knowing anything about this pandemic (or virus)

which puts a lot of the blame on trump...for falling for this shutdown plan...never listen 2 libs is always best

 

[Willie99]

which puts a lot of the blame on trump...for falling for this shutdown plan...never listen 2 libs is always best

I can't disagree with you, he shares the blame for fueling the fire. But what choice did he have?

We're way beyond a 24 hour news cycle, social media and people with far too much time on their hands dominate the landscape

I hope future leaders learn from this

 

[Willie99]

Did people not wear condoms before that?

It was much more than just condoms my friend. I think condoms were initially about preventing pregnancies

 

[mango]

Meanwhile everyone would be dead had Wacko99 been in charge instead of Dr Fauci.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155461&p=13089403&viewfull=1#post13089403

 

[Bruins4Life]

Could you get AIDS from sitting on a plane with other people?
By just living in a nursing home?
By working in a hospital?

 

[Willie99]

Could you get AIDS from sitting on a plane with other people?
By just living in a nursing home?
By working in a hospital?

Predictions predictions predictions

It was proven to be hyperbolic then, time will do it's thing again. To anyone paying attention, it already has

You can make whatever choices you choose to make. I want you to enjoy that freedom

 

[Bruins4Life]

Predictions predictions predictions

It was proven to be hyperbolic then, time will do it's thing again. To anyone paying attention, it already has

You can make whatever choices you choose to make. I want you to enjoy that freedom

I agree with this. Aids never entered my mind for the most part. Partly because I'm straight, partly because of my actions and choices.
I'm choosing to distance at this time. I respect your choice not to if that's your stand.
You may fly to Vegas next month and be perfectly fine. I choose not to at this time.

If they open the economy now everyone has choices to make. But if your government or Health Plan tell you that you have to pay out of pocket should you get sick, will this change your actions?

 

[Dave007inVegas]

I can't disagree with you, he shares the blame for fueling the fire. But what choice did he have?

We're way beyond a 24 hour news cycle, social media and people with far too much time on their hands dominate the landscape

I hope future leaders learn from this

That's probably the most important thing going forward. Trump will have 4 1/2 years to
show if he learned anything.

At the very least when this happens again and it will, whoever is in charge should
rely on actual doctors for advice, you know, the kind that practice medicine.

Not some bureaucratic trough feeding hack like Fauci. I don't blame Trump. No other
president bothered to get involved in past pandemics so there was no road map to follow.

Now there is and we're close to the last chapter being written.

When the next pandemic hits I hope Trump is still in office.

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Meanwhile everyone would be dead had Wacko99 been in charge instead of Dr Fauci.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155461&p=13089403&viewfull=1#post13089403

[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Fauci has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is the last guy want rely on for advice.[/FONT]

 

[Willie99]

I agree with this. Aids never entered my mind for the most part. Partly because I'm straight, partly because of my actions and choices.
I'm choosing to distance at this time. I respect your choice not to if that's your stand.
You may fly to Vegas next month and be perfectly fine. I choose not to at this time.

If they open the economy now everyone has choices to make. But if your government or Health Plan tell you that you have to pay out of pocket should you get sick, will this change your actions?

I pay for everything anyhow

$ 12,000 premiums, $ 12,000 deductible to keep the premiums down

I get one physical per year but still have to pay for some of the blood-work

One colonoscopy every few years, my wife had to pay $ 700 for hers because she required a different anesthesia. I haven't used Obamacare yet for this, but will be soon

And since my plan is Obamacare compliant, I also have maternity coverage

You picked on the wrong guy for that question


Almost forgot, we just paid $ 1,400 for an ER visit because my wife had an allergic reaction to something

 

[Bruins4Life]

Jesus H Christ you guys pay a lot for healthcare.

And I'm not "picking" on you. Just having a civil discussion. Rare here, I know.

For comparison sake, my work health coverage costs me about $3500 a year.
Covers my prescriptions, dental, chiro, RMT, etc.
I never pay a deductible. And i take a anti inflammatory shot every 3 weeks at a cost of $1700 a shot.

I guess people who can't afford the type of plan you have, can't afford to do Vegas etc in general.

 

[StevieRay]

Mango came out unscathed from homosexual relationships, maybe hope we can from Chinavirus as well